The week that was: 2019-12-07 (December 7, 2019)
Presented by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The draft scientific and environmental policy
Quote of the week: "The real problem of speech is not a precise language. The problem is clear language. The desire is to have the idea clearly communicated to the other person. Just be precise when there is a doubt about the meaning of a sentence, and then the accuracy must be put to where the doubt exists. It is really quite impossible to say anything with absolute precision, unless this thing is so abstract from the real world that it represents no real thing. " – Richard Feynman (New textbooks for "new" mathematics)
Number of the week: Less 89 000. Down more 13 442 000 b / d
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Embarrassment of Riches: This week there were several publications that require in-depth discussion, too much for an individual TWTW as it gets too long and confusing. This TWTW will discuss the story of Climategate by statistician Steve McIntyre and economist Ross McKitrick. McIntyre and McKitrick have broken Mann's famous "hockey stick," which has been used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to falsely claim that the globe experienced little change in temperature for 900 years before the industrial revolution in the late 1800s.
In "Climategate: Untangling Myth and Reality Ten Years Later", McIntyre and McKitrick (M & M) discuss how members of the Climate Establishment have attempted to "mask" deliberate efforts to mislead the public about their important mistakes, thereby abusing public trust. This is important because the UN requires $ 100 billion a year in "protection payments" to stop "dangerous climate change" – all based on erroneous work that does not stand up to the "bad weather". examination. The results of a dangerous global warming due to the increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) are more science fiction than science.
The other important articles were a discussion on the greenhouse effect by WA van Wijngaarden and W. Happer (W & H) of the Coalition CO2 in "Methane and Climate" and an article by Richard Lindzen "On Climate Sensitivity" with the help of Roy Spencer. These articles are based more on what is really happening in the atmosphere than on what is supposed to happen by the Climate Establishment and its modellers. These documents will be discussed in more detail in the next TWTW.
But it is important to note for the moment that the W & H newspaper has already been the subject of a yellow journalism turned green. As noted in last week's TWTW, environmental (green) organizations have aligned themselves with the IPCC and strongly support their goals. In short, the characteristics of yellow journalism are found in much of the green journalism, of which IPCC reports and special summaries are a part. In an editorial of Science Magazine formerly respected, a journalist from the green news service, E & E News, attacked the W & H newspaper. It is obvious that the journalist and, perhaps, the editors of Science do not understand the greenhouse effect, which is the basis of the statement that CO2 causes dangerous global warming.
It is also important to note that many types of measurements can not be performed with sufficient accuracy to fully understand or understand many types of human and natural influences. As Roy Spencer indicates in his article on the atmospheric temperature record of satellites, expressing that 2019 could be the third coldest year of the record. As Spencer wrote:
"This is perfectly consistent with science, because the global energy imbalance needed to explain recent warming (about 1 out of every 250 natural energy flows into and out of the climate system) is much smaller than [the uncertainty of] our knowledge of these flows, either from the first theoretical principles or from observations. "
This is the presumption of knowledge by the IPCC and its modellers that may be the worst abuse of the principles of the scientific method.
See the links under Climategate Continued, Challenger the Orthodoxy, Measurement Issues – Atmosphere, and Communicating Better to the Public – Using Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Climategate – A Sad Revelation: Climategate, a collection of e-mails published in late November 2009, revealed to independent observers that climate science does not necessarily use science rigorously with the scientific method to objectively understand the influence of greenhouse gases, especially CO2, on the Earth's climate. The story given by M & M is important and will be widely quoted. Climategate revealed:
"Evidence that scientists take the lead, minimize uncertainties in their calculations, then cover their tracks by being secretive with data and suppressing dissent suggests a systemic problem of scientific negligence, collusion and conflicts of interest." endemic, but not outright fraud. "P 3
At the time, commentators claimed that it could not happen again.
"However, rather than face apparent corruption and misconduct in Climategate emails, the academic climate community turned a blind eye to the case, even believing that the offending scientists were victims rather than offenders. "
"This reframing was made possible by many myths spread about the case, the following of which were particularly important:
"Myth # 1: The Climategate scandal arose from the fact that" handpicked "emails were
the context & # 39;
"Myth # 2: Climategate correspondents were" exonerated "as a result of" thorough "and impartial investigations.
"Myth # 3: Post Climategate scientific studies have" confirmed "and" verified "the original Mann hockey stick.
"These are just the major myths of a true tsunami of misinformation from the academic community. Myths are wrong and in this article we will explain why "(pp 3 & 4)
The original data from the dark circles of the Ural Mountains showed a strong medieval warm period, reversing published conclusions. McIntyre's requests for data for new discoveries have been "blocked."
Investigations meant to exonerate researchers did not examine the key data. It was a "whitewash". For example:
"… Muir Russell's panel rejected all these concerns [regarding excluded data] on the basis that they have not been published in academic journals. This reasoning was ridiculous because, first, much of the battle consisted in forcing journals to enforce their own data disclosure policies, but this usually does not lead to an article in the journal, and secondly, by refusing to disclose the data, Briffa made it impossible for the critical articles of his analysis to be published. "p 5
Comment by TWTW: Very simply, the surveys were useless and encouraged similar behavior in the future. We see such a future now, in what is called the PAGES2K study, which claims to support the hockey stick version of history over the last two thousand years. As stated by M & M:
"• PAGES2K and similar studies remain largely dependent on problematic and inconsistent data on tree rings, many of which have declined in the last half of the twentieth century. In order to extract a form of hockey stick from inconsistent data on tree rings, climate academics, including PAGES2K, have used ad hoc methods (ex post screening, ex post orientation) that are condemned by traditional statisticians and in the statistical literature, but which improve adherence to hockey of the resulting reconstruction. Ex-post screening and manipulation even extends to data used in seemingly technical reports
"The use of the width of the tree rings as a temperature indicator is made even more problematic by the impact of the extraordinary 'greening' world over the past 30 years, mainly attributed by specialists to carbon dioxide fertilization, the width of the rings – an effect that is not unraveled. in PAGES2K.
"• The controversial tape bark bristlecone series, supported by Mann et al 1998, continues to be used in PAGES2K reports, although the 2006 NAS panel recommended that such data be avoided "in temperature reconstructions.
"• In their zeal to obtain a hockey stick, the PAGES2K authors, like Mann et al 2008, introduced series of sediments without taking care to ensure a physical connection, leading to a series of embarrassing blunders from series contaminated by construction runoff and even used upside down [graphs].
"Screening / ex-post orientation of inconsistent dark circles data
Even before the Climategate emails, there had been considerable controversy over Mann style reconstructions using tree ring data.
"Since 2006, Valérie Masson-Delmotte, eminent scientist and now president of the IPCC
Working Group 1 told us privately that it found our criticism of multiproxy temperature reconstructions compelling, relying mainly on tree ring data, and that, in his opinion, the only way forward for the field was the development of new and better proxies – a process that, in his opinion, could easily take 20 years. Although 14 of the 20 years have now passed, PAGES2K multiproxy reconstructions continue to rely primarily on tree ring data. Tree ring
the chronologies represented 83% of PAGES2K (network 2013 used in IPCC AR5 (PAGES2K 2017 – 60%).
"If there was a consistent" signal "in the" chronologies "of the arboreal ring site (time series of the ring width), the" signal "could be easily recovered by simple average. But this is not what has been done in PAGES2K, which has been frantically debated in the impossible task of extracting temperature estimates from inconsistent data. »Pp 25 & 26
M & M discusses problems with the North American proxy network of the tree ring,
"In other words, 85% of the" carefully chosen "North American chronologies used in PAGES2K (2013) were not positively correlated with temperature, even with four chances (whole year or growing season, local or regional). Some of these series came from sites used in the original reconstruction of Briffa – with its disturbing decline in the last half of the 20th century. "
In conclusion, M & M states:
"The climategate was not born of the removal of some emails" out of context ". It was exactly the opposite. The emails provided context behind the scenes and very disturbing for unsettling statistical and scientific practices that had, for the most part, already been identified by us and by others in articles published in scientific journals and blogs .
"The contemporary whitening and ultimate disinfection by climate academics is in itself an interesting story and for the most part unprecedented. Climating the bad practices exposed; the false surveys have whitewashed them, and now the story is told so that the wicked are not only innocent but must be adopted as heroes. This is an almost classic example of what Alexander Pope observed in his Essay on Man (1733) almost three centuries ago:
"'Vice is such a freaky monster
To be hated, one must be seen;
Yet, too often seen, familiar with his face,
We endure first, then we have pity, then we kiss. "
Not discussed, is the great uncertainty of proxy data, it is noisy, giving many different signals. The separation of the different signals is difficult and often misleading. Unfortunately, the public had the impression that dark circles were accurate measurements, which is not correct. We can use tree rings to discover that something has happened in (say) 1200 AD. They do not tell us what happened, increasing heat, greater humidity or, recently, CO2 fertilization. So, we can have annual dates on what happened but not why.
As indicated below, it seems that the IPCC and climate modellers will use Climategate's vice to create even greater fears of global warming caused by carbon dioxide. See the links under Climategate Suite.
The Next Generation of Fears: Writing in Carbon Brief, Zeke Hausfather, an environmental economist formerly of the Berkeley Earth project, discusses the next generation of global climate models that have an even greater estimate of sensitivity from the globe to the increase in CO2 than current models, which significantly overestimate the warming of the atmosphere to the increase of CO2. Hausfather begins impressively:
"Climate models are one of the main ways for scientists to understand how the climate has changed in the past and could change in the future. These models simulate in detail the physics, chemistry and biology of the atmosphere, land and oceans and require some of the world's largest supercomputers to generate their climate projections.
"Climate models are constantly being updated because different modeling groups around the world are integrating higher spatial resolution, new physical processes, and biogeochemical cycles. These modeling groups are coordinating their updates around the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report schedule, publishing a set of model results – called "analyzes" – ahead of each. "
Later Hausfather states:
"While the results of only about 31 CMIP6 models have been published so far, it is already clear that a number of them have a significantly higher sensitivity to climate than CMIP5 models. . This higher sensitivity contributes to projections of a larger warming this century – about 0.4 to 0.9 C warmer than similar scenarios performed in CMIP5 – although these warming projections may change as more of models become available. Researchers are still working to evaluate why sensitivity values appear higher in the latest generation of models. "
But Hausfather does not mention a necessary critical problem before one of these models, or model executions, is considered to meet the requirements of the scientific method – repeated tests against all relevant physical evidence, particularly observations of the atmospheric temperature. Without these tests, modellers will stay in their own special world, outside the physical world.
Other reports indicate that the justifications for a higher CO2 climate sensitivity are based on PAGES2K, the new hockey stick. If this becomes the case, then the M & M discussion above is much needed and timely. Model makers will do little more than develop a myth. See the links under Climategate Suite and Model Issues.
The modelists are right! The same Hausfather, as above, two MIT researchers and Gavin Schmidt of NASA / GISS have published an article claiming that climate models correctly describe the warming of the earth.
Greenhouse gases, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels, are responsible for an increase of nearly 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit in global average temperatures since 1880, two-thirds of those since 1975.
This can be numerically correct, assuming that warming of greenhouse gases occurs on asphalt or immediately above. They ignore the much more complete atmospheric temperature observations, where the greenhouse effect occurs. With surface temperatures, they can not separate warming greenhouse gases from the increase in asphalt or similar human influences. See the links under Defense of Orthodoxy.
COP Celebrations: The 25th Annual Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is scheduled to end on Friday, 13 December. There will undoubtedly be great announcements of what has been accomplished and why it will be essential for the world to continue events that bring few benefits to mankind. TWTW will comment once that the current noise is attenuated. See the links under Defend Orthodoxy, after Paris and below the bottom line.
Green – The new yellow journalism: A World News Daily article presents four distinct periods over the past 125 years, when scientists and other climate experts predicted dangerous climate change. The first was a new ice age from the 1890s, replaced by a warming in the 1920s, replaced by a cooling in the 1970s and a warming in the 1980s. Now we see items that predict a extreme warming are emotionally upset because others will not believe them? They fail to clearly prove why they should be believed. Models can be used to create predictions. It's the test that counts.
In a presentation to doctors for disaster preparedness, Willie Soon describes the strategies used to scare people used by Greenpeace and other environmental groups. He gives clear examples of erroneous assertions and considerable funds collected by false allegations. Greenpeace receives more than $ 350 million a year from a simple plan: 1) inventing a problem, 2) inventing a simple solution, 3) choosing an enemy and 4) rejecting alternative solutions. Of course, intense advertising is needed to promote the program.
Number of the week: minus 89,000 less than 13,442,000 b / d. According to the US Energy Information Administration's November 29th press release, in August 2006, US net imports of crude oil and petroleum products were 13,442,000 barrels per day (b / d). In September 2019, they were minus 89,000 b / d, net exports. The change was a net 13 531 000 b / d from imports to exports. Yet green lobbies and politicians ignore this remarkable change and talk about wind and solar growth. See links under Energy Issues – US and https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttntus2&f=m
NEWS THAT YOU CAN USE:
Science: is the sun rising?
NASA's Parker solar probe sheds new light on the sun
By Sarah Frazier for GSFC News, Greenbelt® (SPX), December 05, 2019
Climategate: Unraveling Myth and Reality 10 Years Later
Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, McKitrick's Blog, December 5, 2019
10 years ago today
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, December 4, 2019
Some classification memories
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Dec 2,2019
Challenging Orthodoxy – NIPCC
Climate change reconsidered II: Physical sciences
Idso, Carter and Singer, Lead Authors / Publishers, International Non-Governmental Climate Change Group (NIPCC), 2013
Climate change reconsidered II: Biological impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter and Singer, Lead Authors / Publishers, International Non-Governmental Climate Change Group (NIPCC), 2014
Climate change reconsidered II: fossil fuels
By several authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates and Singer editions, Nongovernment International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
Download for free:
Why scientists do not agree on global warming
The NIPCC report on the scientific consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter and S. Fred Singer, International Non-Governmental Climate Change Group (NIPCC), November 23, 2015
Download for free:
Nature, not human activity, governs the climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor-in-Chief, NIPCC, 2008
Sea level rise in the world: an assessment of the data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates and Sred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Methane and climate
By W.A.van Wijngaarden and W.Happer, CO2 Coalition, November 22, 2019
On climate sensitivity
By Richard Lindzen, with the help of Roy Spencer's review, CO2 Coalition, 2019
"Needs No Consensus" … 4 Leading Scientists Reveal Key IPCC Gaps: "Clearly Erroneous Models"
2019 Munich Climate Conference
By Dr. Andreas Mueller, (summarized by P. Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, December 6, 2019
"How dare you!" Will Happer "qualifies methane as" irrelevant "for climate".
By David Middleton, WUWT, December 4, 2019
The UN chief warns that global warming "a point of no return" is afflicting us
By Aritz Parra & Frank Jordans, AP, Dec 2,2019
According to new report, early climate modellers have mastered global warming
By Robert Sanders, Berkeley News, December 4, 2019
Link to article: Evaluating the performance of previous climate model projections
By Zeke Hausfather, Henri F. Derache, Tristan Abbott and Gavin A. Schmidt, Geophysical Research Letters, December 4, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Assuming the effect of greenhouse gases occurs on asphalt.]
Climate change models were right about global warming 30 years ago – including that of NASA scientist James Hansen
By Rosie McCall, Newsweek, December 5, 2019
The COP25 is really the "point of no return" in the climatic emergency. here's why
By Ivana Kottasová, CNN, December 2, 2019
To question orthodoxy
Hausfather et al. The paper is not what it cracked
By Patrick Michaels, IEC, Dec 6, 1919
"The fact is that if you are going to adjust the output of the model for the revised science, you have to adjust all the relevant variables that the later science has revised. Hausfather et al. did not do that. If they did, it would have invalidated their result. "
[SEPP Comment: Isn’t partially right, right enough?]
Alarmist PIK refuted, new articles published claim that mass migration is "misleading" related to climate … "simplistic"
PIK under fire: the concept of a mass migration caused by the climate is not tenable
By Kalte Sonne (German text translated / edited by P Gosselin), November 30, 2019
Climate News – December 2019
By Alan Moran, Via Geoff Brown, The Australian Climate Skeptics Blog, December 5, 2019
"The icon of the Australian Labor Party, Theo Theophanus, is calling for a carbon tax for pets that would raise $ 100 million for carbon credits in Victoria alone. No sign, however, that current MPs share such suicidal thoughts. "
Scientists: Mars has an atmosphere of 95% CO2 … but "there is little to keep the heat on the planet"
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, December 2, 2019
[Note: Left out water vapor and atmospheric pressure at the surface.]
Combat fire with words
By John Robson, Nexus Climate Discussion, December 4, 2019
"Instead of that, [failure of past resolutions] triggers a curious reflex determination to make even more promises, to issue even more warnings, to issue even more rallying cries and to set even more ambitious goals than those no one meets anyway. "
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. 2 Dec.2019
"How did we get there? Over the last three decades, the "trolley" of climate policy has been largely overtaken by the scientific "horse". The 1992 climate change treaty was signed by 190 countries before the balance of scientific evidence even suggested a noticeable human influence on the global climate. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol was implemented before we were certain that most of the recent warming was caused by humans. There has been tremendous political pressure on scientists to come up with results that would support these treaties, resulting in a willingness to reach scientific consensus on the dangers of human-induced climate change. "
Why COP 25?
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, December 03, 2019
Climate Reality Forum COP25
By Staff, The Heartland Institute, December 3
Videos of skeptics expressing their opinions
Climate Futility at COP 25: The Chinese Syndrome
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Dec 5, 1919
"As the world draws attention to UN climate meetings this week, news from China made headlines around the world: from January 2018 to June 2019, the country added 43 gigawatts ( GW) net new coal capacity to its existing 1,000 GW coal fleet. , tandis que le reste du monde a réduit collectivement la capacité de production de charbon de 8 GW. "
[SEPP Comment: The importance of energy density.]
Entretien: la Chine «ouvre la voie» dans la lutte contre le changement climatique, selon un responsable de l'ONU
Par Yuraon, Xinhua Net, 4 décembre 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Lien vers Global Coal Plant Tracker, 12 648 unités alimentées au charbon
By Staff, EndCoal, Date de consultation 4 Dec 2019
L'Accord de Paris sur le climat était condamné avant même le retrait des États-Unis
Les États-Unis étaient loin d'être le pire contrevenant à l'accord sur le climat.
Par H. Sterling Burnett, The American Spectator, 30 novembre 2019
L'ONU tient sa 25e conférence sur le climat – s'il vous plaît ne laissez pas y avoir une 26e
Editorial, Issues and Insights, 6 décembre 2019
26 000 junkets maintenant en Espagne à la COP 25 des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiques. Les plus grandes délégations? Côte d'Ivoire et Congo
Par Jo Nova, son blog, 6 décembre 2019
Changement dans les administrations américaines
L'inaction de principe face à l'extrémisme du changement climatique.
L'engagement courageux du président Trump envers l'Amérique d'abord sur la question des émissions d'énergie.
Par Gregory Wrightstone, Human Events, 2 décembre 2019 [H/t WUWT]
«Il faut beaucoup de courage pour ne rien faire.»
Le Sénat confirme que Brouillette remplacera Perry au poste de secrétaire à l'Énergie
Par Rebecca Beitsch, The Hill, 2 déc.2019
Avantages sociaux du dioxyde de carbone
Le lien fortuit entre les émissions de CO2 et la croissance économique
L'écologisation de la planète Terre – confirmée! Série vidéo
Par le personnel, Centre for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, 2 décembre 2019
Problèmes dans l'orthodoxie
Le leadership climatique de l'UE dans le doute alors que le Bloc s'apprête à manquer l'objectif 2030
Par Paul Homewood, pas beaucoup de gens le savent, 4 décembre 2019
«Ici et dans l'UE, les fruits qui pendent bas ont été cueillis, bien qu'à un coût obscène. L'abandon progressif du charbon, qui sera remplacé par le gaz et de petites quantités d'énergies renouvelables fortement subventionnées, n'est pas si intelligent.
«Mais la transition suivante est une autre histoire, impliquant la décarbonisation de la chaleur et des transports, la gestion des émissions industrielles et l'exploitation de réseaux électriques à forte proportion d'énergie renouvelable intermittente.
"Aucun de ces objectifs ne peut être atteint sans modifier radicalement le mode de vie et le niveau de vie des citoyens."
Crise de l'UE: le Bloc admet avoir échoué à presque CHAQUE objectif vert – "Mettre de l'ordre dans notre maison"
L'Union européenne échoue à presque chacun de ses objectifs environnementaux, a averti une étude de choc réalisée par l'Agence européenne pour l'environnement.
Par Joe Barnes, Express, UK, 4 décembre 2019 [H/t GWPF]
«L'urgence climatique» du Parlement européen entraînera des conséquences désastreuses – Ancien expert des Nations unies
Par Staff, Sputnik News, 1 décembre 2019
Analyse: les émissions mondiales de combustibles fossiles en hausse de 0,6% en 2019 en raison de la Chine
Par Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief, 4 décembre 2019
Émissions de dioxyde de carbone sur une tendance à la hausse constante
Par Paul Homewood, pas beaucoup de gens le savent, 4 décembre 2019
«Mais, selon l'ONU, pour maintenir l'augmentation de la température en dessous de 1,5 ° C (mesurée à partir de la période préindustrielle), les émissions devraient être de 55% inférieures à celles de 2018 d'ici 2030. De toute évidence, une baisse de 5,5% par an est une tarte dans le ciel , même si les émissions ont cessé d'augmenter maintenant. "
Revue d'articles scientifiques récents par CO2 Science
Tendances récentes de la productivité primaire brute et nette terrestre
Yu, T., Sun, R., Xiao, Z., Zhang, Q., Liu, G., Cui, T. et Wang, J. 2018. Estimation de la productivité de la végétation mondiale à partir des données du Global Land Surface Satellite. Télédétection 10: 327, doi: 10.3390 / rs10020327. 4 déc.2019
"Les améliorations ci-dessus dans GPP et NPP [Gross Primary Productivity & Net Primary Productivity] indiquent que la santé de la biosphère terrestre s'est améliorée au fil du temps, ce qui a également été noté dans plusieurs autres études du sujet archivées sur notre site Web sous le titre Productivité biosphérique (Global: The Recent Past). La signification de telles observations ne peut pas être surestimée; despite the occurrence of many real (and imagined) assaults on Earth’s vegetation over the past few years and decades, including wildfires, disease, pest outbreaks, deforestation, and supposedly unprecedented climatic changes in temperature and precipitation, global terrestrial GPP and NPP is not diminishing. And, as evidenced in several other studies of the subject (see the reviews posted here), it increase or improvement is primarily caused by growth-related benefits associated with earth’s rising atmospheric CO2 concentration.”
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained
By Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief, Dec 12, 2019
Measurement Issues — Surface
New Video : Rewriting History, One State At A Time
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Dec 4, 2019
Questioning the verification for Colorado’s new hottest day.
The Mysterious Warmth at Mackay
By Michael Chase, WUWT, Dec 6, 2019
Seal takes ocean heat transport data to new depths
By Esprit Smith, NASA’s Earth Science News team, Pasadena CA (JPL) Dec 05, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Years ago, many in the public were outraged when it was revealed that the US Navy was considering using dolphins to track submarines.]
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for November 2019: +0.55 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Dec 2, 2019
Links to map and graph: Global Temperature Report
By Staff, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama in Huntsville, November 2019
2019 the Third Least-Chilly in the Satellite Temperature Record
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Dec 6, 2019
Atmospheric rivers cost American West $1 billion a year in flood damage
By Brooks Hays, Washington (UPI) Dec 5, 2019
“’This is a reminder that weather and climate matter,’[researcherCorringhamsaid‘Everystepwetakenowtostabilizetheglobalclimatesystemstandstoreducefutureadverseimpactsonoureconomy’”[researcherCorringhamsaid‘Everystepwetakenowtostabilizetheglobalclimatesystemstandstoreducefutureadverseimpactsonoureconomy’”[researcherCorringhamsaid‘Everystepwetakenowtostabilizetheglobalclimatesystemstandstoreducefutureadverseimpactsonoureconomy’”[researcherCorringhamsaid‘Everystepwetakenowtostabilizetheglobalclimatesystemstandstoreducefutureadverseimpactsonoureconomy’”
[SEPP Comment: Would CO2 control have stopped the heavy rains of 1850, 1861 & 62, and 1880? According to contemporary accounts, the native Indians knew what was coming.]
Early snow cover record set for USA – a foot of snow in 25 states!
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 3, 2019
[SEPP Comment: New Ipswich, in southern New Hampshire, got three feet!]
A Wet Autumn For South Yorkshire
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 6, 2019
The Most Boring Late Fall in Years
By Cliff Mass, Weather and Climate Blog, Dec 4, 2019
Climate Emergency Tour: Interglacial Edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 4, 2019
“By the alarmist’s reasoning the previous four interglacials had to have been non-stop emergencies, since they averaged 1-3 degrees warmer than the current one.”
McGill-led research unravels mystery of how early animals survived ice age
By Staff Writers, Montreal, Canada (SPX) Dec 03, 2019
Link to paper: Subglacial meltwater supported aerobic marine habitats during Snowball Earth
By Maxwell A. Lechte, PNAS, Dec 2, 2019
NASA, French Space Laser Measures Massive Migration of Ocean Animals
By Staff, NASA Global Climate Change, Accessed Dec 6 [H/t WUWT]
Dead woman tells a tale
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 4, 2019
New maps of salinity reveal the impact of climate variability on oceans
By Staff Writers, Paris (ESA), Dec 03, 2019
Link to abstract: ESA Sea Surface Salinity Climate Change Initiative (Sea_Surface_Salinity_cci): Version 1.8 data collection
Press Release, CEDA, Accessed Dec 5, 2019
Cartology Affirms Relative Sea Levels Were Similar To Or HIGHER Than Now During The Little Ice Age
By Kenneth Richards, No Tricks Zone, Dec 5, 2019
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
In the Arctic, warming means cooling
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 4, 2019
Ryrkaypiy "exceeded" by> 50 polar bears is probably due to more Chukchi sea bear
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Dec 5, 2019
[SEPP Comment: And the fat on the bears “proves” they are starving.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
GM Crops Like Golden Rice Will Save the Lives of Hundreds of Thousands of Children
By Matt Ridley, Rational Optimist, Dec 1, 2019
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Grid reliability under climate change may require more power generation capacity
New study reveals the importance of climate-water impacts in electric grid planning
Press Release, NSF, Dec 2, 2019
[SEPP Comment: If you believe the results of poorly tested models.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
In unpublished paper, former White House climate adviser calls methane ‘irrelevant’ to climate
By Scott Waldman, E & E News, Via Science Mag. Nov 27, 2019
How Wrong Can One Article Be?
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, Dec 6, 2019
The Democratic Party’s ultimate coup d’etat
David Kupelian on how leftists’ ‘solutions’ to climate catastrophe are actually their ‘atomic bomb’ for destroying capitalism
By David Kupelian, WND, Dec 1, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Convincing Frozen People They Are Burning Up
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Dec 4, 2019
David Attenborough Accused Of Misleading Public About Polar Bears, Again
Release, Global Warming Policy Foundation, Dec 2, 2019
Blaming Climate Change: Bogus Wildlife Videos
Nature videos from National Geographic, Netflix, and the BBC can’t be trusted.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Dec 2, 2019
Claim: Climate Change Causes Premature Births
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 2, 2019
Link to paper: The impact of high ambient temperatures on delivery timing and gestational lengths
By Alan Barreca and Jessamyn Schaller, Nature Climate Change, Dec 2, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Humans evolved in the tropics, therefore warmth is harmful to them?]
The science is rubbish
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 4, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Sherelle Jacobs: The UN’s ‘Woke’ Climate Propaganda Is An Insult To Science
By Sherelle Jacobs, The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Dec 3, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
New Video: ‘UN Fundraising By Frightening Children,
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Dec 5, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
British yacht skipper, 26, wiped out the carbon emissions saved by Greta Thunberg’s sail across the Atlantic by flying out to the US to help her
By Jemma Carr, Daily Mail, Dec 2, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
John Kerry launches ‘World War Zero’ climate activism coalition
By Marty Johnson, The Hill, Nov 30, 2019
John Kerry Recruits Bill Clinton, Leonardo Dicaprio for New Climate Coalition
By Joshua Caplin, Breitbart, Nov 30, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Previously, Kerry declared climate change is simple physics. Radiative transfer is simple physics? Does he, or his recruits, know the types of mathematics required to describe this “simple physics”?]
Kerry: Fight against climate change should be treated like a ‘war’
By Rebecca Klar, The Hill, Dec 1, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Like Vietnam, with which he made his political fame by speaking against it and insulting honorable soldiers?]
Bank of England Mark Carney to Head a UN Climate Action Effort
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Dec 1, 2019
Mason scientist develops game to arm users against climate change ‘fake news’
New game builds resilience against misinformation; ‘inoculates’ users against fake news on climate change; gamifies critical thinking
Press Release, George Mason University, Dec 3, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: The “Mason scientist” is an expert on the subject, especially fake polling such as his 97%.]
Questioning European Green
Even Faster, More Powerful Than Climate Change… Europe’s Movement To Ecological Tyranny Emerging Rapidly
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 4, 2019
Next week, Czech PM plans to block the EU gretin plans
By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, Dec 5, 2019
The plot against fracking
How cheap energy was killed by Green lies and Russian propaganda [in UK]
By Matt Ridley, The Critic, UK, Dec 2019
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Good Sense Sold Up the River
By Alan Moran, Quadrant, Dec 6, 2019
You had me at 210
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 4, 2019
Link to report: Bridging the Gap: Real Options for Meeting Canada’s 2020 GHG Target
By Chris Ragan, et al., Canada’s Ecofiscal Commission (a private group), November 2019
U.N. Cries Poor [Again]: Issues Unprecedented $29 Billion Emergency Funding Appeal
By Simon Kent, Breitbart, Dec 4, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
The Political Games Continue
Are Climate, Energy, Enviro Justice for the Left Only?
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Dec 2, 2019
Climate Litigation and Politics 2020: A Tale of Two Media Blackouts
By Kevin Kirchner, Climate Litigation Watch, Dec 4, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
“As CNBC put it, ‘Bloomberg News will not investigate Mike Bloomberg or his Democratic rivals during primary’.”
“This means that only one presidential candidate will be subject to Bloomberg News ‘investigative journalism’.”
Pelosi: Congress has ‘iron-clad’ commitment to climate crisis
By Miranda Green, The Hill, Dec 2, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Even though the Senate has not approved the Paris Agreement as a treaty?]
Democrats fly to Madrid to conceal Paris Agreement’s colossal failure from Americans
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Dec 3, 2019
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Natural gas companies call for carbon tax
By James Osborne, Houston Chronicle, Dec 4, 2019
“The Natural Gas Supply Association said it is not yet lobbying for any one specific proposal, but broadly supports putting a price on carbon while also eliminating existing regulations on carbon and delivering revenues not to government but directly to American consumers.”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
The “Everybody Gets a Car!” Act
By Kenny Stein, American Energy Alliance, Nov 26, 2019
Wind and Solar Tax Credits: Special Interest Subsidies
By Marlo Lewis, CEI, Dec 6, 2019
Energy Issues – Non-US
Some Facts About Energy
By Wallace Manheimer, WUWT, Dec 5, 2019
Green Energy Catastrophe: Zimbabwe ‘Turning Into A Desert’ As Poor Cut Down Forests For Fuel
By Staff, The Times, Nov 30, 2019
Russia’s $400 Billion Pipeline Project Launches Today
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Dec 2, 2019
“The presidents of Russia and China will today officially inaugurate the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline that will eventually deliver 38 billion cubic meters annually to China, with the full capacity to be reached some time in 2025.”
[SEPP Comment: The construction took $55 billion, the balance is the calculated worth of the project, including delivery of gas. This gives Russia a source of revenues if it decides to cut off Europe to apply political pressure.]
Russia cements role as gas ‘kingpin’ with three new pipelines
By Staff, EURACTIV.com with AFP, Dec 2, 2019
Is coal power winning the US-China trade war?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 1, 2019
“Although China is under international pressure to increase its climate ambition in 2020 and accelerate its energy transition, Chinese policymakers still see coal as the bedrock of the country’s energy security, playing a major role in the 14th Five Year Plan.”
Energy Issues – Australia
Jeopardy: What happens when your single largest generator is uncontrolled and coordinated by clouds? Watch Western Australia
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 1, 2019
Energy Issues — US
The Next Shale Oil Battle
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Dec 6, 2019
Link to paper: Sustainable Produced Water Policy, Regulatory Framework, and Management in the Texas oil and Natural Gas Industry: 2019 and Beyond
By John Tintera, et al., Texas Alliance of Energy Producers, 2019
Contrast Of Climate And Energy Policies, And Economic Results, In The U.S. And Germany
By Franics Mention, Manhattan Contrarian, Dec 6, 2019
Return of King Coal?
In China, coal creeps back in as slowing economy overshadows climate change ambitions
By David Stanway, Reuters, Dec 2, 2019
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Germany is closing all its nuclear power plants. Now it must find a place to bury the deadly waste for 1 million years
By Sheena McKenzie, CNN, Nov 30, 2019
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Renewables Can’t Offset Growing Need For Fossil Fuels
Editorial, Mining.com Via Oil Price.com, Dec 4, 2019 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
The Limits of Clean Energy
If the world isn’t careful, renewable energy could become as destructive as fossil fuels.
By Jason Hinckel, Foreign Policy Sep 6, 2019
Link to report: The Growing Role of Minerals and Metals for a Low Carbon Future (English)
By Arrobas, Daniele, et al. World Bank, June 30, 2017
Renewables are not making electricity any more expensive
Wholesale prices are dropping, though mostly due to natural gas.
By John Timmer, ARS Technica, Nov 21, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Apparently the author believes reliability has no value or cost.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Playin’ By The Rules – Regulations Spark A Bevy Of U.S. Renewable Diesel Projects
By Amy Kalt, RBN Energy, Dec 5, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The link may be paywalled.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
The half-mile electric car charging queue in the US
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 6, 2019
“Looks like Tesla owners need a back-up ‘baseload’ type car in the garage all year to be able to enjoy those special days. There go those fuel savings.”
Why Worse Wildfires, part 2
By Jim Steele, Landscapes and Cycles, Dec 4, 2019
California Farmer Fights Government Claim That Dirt Is a Pollutant
By Kevin Mooney, The Daily Signal, Dec 3, 2019
Health, Energy, and Climate
Study shows link between precipitation, climate zone and invasive cancer rates in the US
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Dec 3, 2019
Hide the Decline
Video By Staff, Climate Discussion Nexus, Dec 4, 2019
All Green Cash and Not Very Peaceful: Endless Dirty Tricks and Hidden Secrets of Greenpeace
By Willie Soon, DDP Conference, July 20, 2019, Video Nov 29, 2019
“Green Groups at COP 25 Warn Against Market-Driven Solutions to Climate Emergency”
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Dec 4, 2019
Other Scientific News
How ancient microbes created massive ore deposits, set the stage for early life on Earth
By Staff Writers, Vancouver, Canada (SPX), Dec 03, 2019
Photoferrotrophy, deposition of banded iron formations, and methane production in Archean oceans
By Katharine J. Thompson, et al. Science Advances, Nov 27, 2019
Other News that May Be of Interest
Fraud in Higher Education
By Walter E. Williams, The Daily Signal, Dec 4, 2019
The Stanford Paradox: An Oasis Of Scientific Achievement In A Desert Of Political Correctness
By Henry Miller, Issues & Insights, Dec 3, 2019
“The day after the November 2016 general election, for example, Stanford’s president sent an email to all faculty, students, and employees, asserting that there was widespread shock, anger, and fear following the election of President Donald Trump. He promised that there would be “safe spaces” and counseling available at various places on campus.”
[SEPP Comment: Stanford’s president expressing teen-age angst – fear and anxiety.]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
The Emotional Toll of Climate Change on Science Professionals
Earth scientists and communicators dealing with or studying climate change face many potential stressors. They need support and resources to maintain and improve their emotional well-being.
By Daniel Gilford, Susanne Moser, Becky DePodwin, Rebecca Moulton, and Sarah Watson, EOS, Earth & Space Science News, Dec 6, 2019 [H/t Mark Albright]
An anti-climatic response to #okboomer and #COP25
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 2, 2019
Oxford Word of the Year: “Climate Emergency”… Seriously?
By David Middleton, WUWT, Dec 3, 2019
Panic At The UN
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 4, 2019
Will Greta Go By Donkey?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Dec 6, 2019
“The generous offer comes from the Association of Neighbors in Toledo.”
“As the Association point out:‘Our ancestors have used it and it has been the most environmentally friendly in human displacement.””
1. Requiem for a Climate Dream
If the world isn’t slashing CO2, blame overreaction to the Fukushima disaster.
By Holman Jenkins, WSJ, Dec 3, 2019
TWTW SUMMARY: The journalist writes:
“Rigor could be restored to mainstream climate journalism with a single clause. That clause consists of the words ‘if climate models are accurate.’
“A United Nations study issued in advance of this week’s climate summit in Madrid would appear in a different light, though still worrisome, and still a challenge to policy makers, if it were reported as saying: To avoid any chance of a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius, annual emissions cuts of 7.6% must begin next year if computerized climate simulations are correct.
“Such simulations, we should admit, are science. Their findings represent a legitimate pursuit of knowledge. The common failing in the media involves leaving out the necessary caveats. Such carelessness has ultimately enabled a new kind of science denial on the left, where advocates like Greta Thunberg and the U.K. group Extinction Rebellion increasingly talk about climate change leading to a human demise that is nowhere supported in the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or other scientific bodies.
“In my view, Al Gore bears heavy responsibility here. Name any important policy commitment in history—whether Social Security or Medicare or even fighting World War II—that required that all debate be silenced and all skeptics vilified before it could proceed. The Gore formula is good for stoking tribalism. It’s not good for making policy progress in a democracy. And so it has proved. Nobody remotely believes the supposedly necessary emissions cuts will take place. The only response left to the climate crowd is to ratchet up even more dire predictions.
“Let’s start over. If stated properly, the ‘scientific consensus’ would run as follows: climate models teach us to expect some warming from human-caused atmospheric CO2 increases, but disagree about how much. It’s hard to make cost-benefit judgments on such a basis, but happily the Green New Deal makes it easy—it would cost a lot of money and accomplish nothing since U.S. emissions are just 14% of the total and shrinking. India and China, not the U.S., will determine the fate of climate change.
“Cost-benefit analysis also tells us a bunch of things that might be worth doing even in light of the uncertainties. A tax reform based on a revenue-neutral carbon tax could make our tax system more efficient and pro-growth. Government investment in basic research tends to have a high payoff, and battery research is a particularly attractive opportunity. Rethinking nuclear power and regulation is another area of huge potential. Safer and cheaper nuclear technologies continue to advance on the drawing board even in today’s inhospitable political environment.
“And guess what? All the above would be easier to sell to other countries than Green New Deal masochism. Voters would readily gobble up new energy technologies and tax models that would make their societies richer and stronger.
“In honor of this week’s global climate gathering in Madrid, the New York Times aptly refers to the ‘gap between reality and diplomacy.’ International agreements, by their nature, are designed to put an imprimatur on what domestic politicians would do anyway, and that doesn’t include prematurely ending their careers by imposing on consumers the kind of crushing burdens the green left seeks.
“Look elsewhere for the turning points that actually matter. If climate change proves as severe as some scientists believe, the most damning moment will be one that passed largely unremarked except in this column: the Fukushima nuclear reactor meltdown after Japan’s 2011 earthquake and tsunami. Under Chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany, the world’s sixth biggest emitter, chaotically and thoughtlessly announced within weeks that it would close all 17 of its nuclear plants. China and India, then pursuing ambitious nuclear expansions that should have become more ambitious, instead recommitted themselves to burning vast amounts of coal.
Jenkins concludes that countries cannot turn to nuclear due to the fears instilled by yellow (green) journalism following the Fukushima disaster. In the view of TWTW, he misses the importance of hydraulic fracturing, particularly in the US, and the fears instilled by yellow (green) journalism for the development of other sources of oil and gas.
2. PG&E Had Systemic Problems With Power Line Maintenance, California Probe Finds
An investigation by state’s utilities commission concludes company failed to properly inspect and maintain transmission lines for years
By Russell Gold and Katherine Blunt, WSJ, Dec 2, 2019
TWTW SUMMARY: The reporters begin by stating:
PG&E Corp. failed to adequately inspect and maintain its transmission lines for years before a faulty line started the deadliest fire in California history, a state investigation has found.
“In a 700-page report detailing the problems that led the Caribou-Palermo transmission line to malfunction on Nov. 8, 2018, sparking the Camp Fire, investigators with the California Public Utilities Commission said they found systemic problems with how the company oversaw the safety of its oldest lines.
“State fire investigators had previously determined that PG&E equipment started the Camp Fire, which killed 85 people, and the company hasn’t disputed the findings. But the new report goes well beyond earlier findings, alleging numerous serious violations of state rules for maintaining electric lines and specific problems with upkeep of the transmission line that started the fire.
“The investigation’s conclusions corroborate many of the findings of previous Wall Street Journal articles, which found that PG&E deferred maintenance work on the Caribou-Palermo transmission line, along with numerous other older transmission lines.”
The article goes through detail in passing blame but does not identify who is ultimately responsible. As discussed in the November 16 TWTW, the Constitution of the State of California clearly assigns accountability and responsibility to the state government, namely the State Legislature. Section 3 of Article 12, the Public Utilities Section of the Constitution.