Last week: 2019-11-30 (November 30, 2019)
Presented to you by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The draft scientific and environmental policy
Quote of the week: "In reading The Story of the Nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their quirks and peculiarities, their seasons of excitement and carelessness, when they do not care what they are. They do. We find that entire communities suddenly fix their minds on one object and go mad in pursuit of it; that millions of people are simultaneously impressed by an illusion and run after, until their attention is attracted by a new madness more captivating than the first. – Charles Mackay (1841)
Number of the week: 63.6% of US electricity.
By Ken Haapala, Chair, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Yellow has become green? In the late 1800s, particularly in New York, Joseph Pulitzer's competition with New York World and William Randolph Hearst's New York Journal gave birth to an era known as yellow journalism, where newspapers only featured little or no legitimate and well-documented news. relied on catchy headlines, news hype, scandals or outright sensationalism to increase sales. The origin of the term is controversial, but the characteristics of journalism are not. These include scary titles with large print, often minor news, heavy use of dramatic images or imaginary drawings, misleading titles, pseudoscience and false knowledge of so-called experts.
Separating real knowledge from mere speculation can be difficult. It amounts to distinguishing science from science fiction. Like science, science fiction can be wonderfully imaginative and incredibly complex, and it can use mathematics, the language of science. What separates science from science fiction is physical evidence. When mathematics is used to create complex models, these must be tested against all relevant physical evidence. Do not do it, it's ignore the scientific method. And the model, when it fails basic tests, becomes science fiction.
In particular, in its summaries and special reports, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) puts forward supposedly scientific ideas, while ignoring the real science, the scientific method of testing hypotheses of models and concepts against data, material evidence from observations and experiments. . The IPCC focuses on the parts of its claims that adhere to the scientific method, while minimizing the alarming parts of its claims that fail the basic tests. The evidence presented by the IPCC is often contradicted by other evidence, often more convincing and dominant. To reach their goal of ceasing to use fossil fuels, believing that this would cause dangerous global warming, the IPCC and its supporters have adopted the characteristics of yellow journalism.
Environmental organizations (green) have aligned themselves with the IPCC and strongly support its objectives. In short, the characteristics of yellow journalism can be found in a lot of green journalism, of which IPCC reports and special summaries are part.
The war against fossil fuels has therefore taken a double irony. The CO2 emitted during the burning process revives the earth and, at the same time, pushes the plants to use the water more efficiently. Environmentalists opposed to coal, oil and natural gas are therefore opposed to improving the health of the environment.
The fear of carbon dioxide, advocated by the IPCC and the "Greens", is a fear of life itself. The propaganda launched for the next twenty-fifth annual Conference of the Parties (COP-25) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which will begin on 2 December in Madrid, can be seen as an attack against the life itself. It is doubtful that President George H. W. Bush acknowledged what the agreement that he signed was going to become. See the links in the section Defending Orthodoxy, Benefits of Carbon Dioxide and Orthodox Problems.
Book Review – "Global Warming Skepticism for Busy People": Roy Spencer is the former Senior Scientist in Climate Studies at Marshall Space Flight Center at NASA, where he received, along with Dr. John Christy, NASA's Medal for Scientific Excellence for its work monitoring global temperature with satellites. Spencer has written an outstanding book on the problems between knowledge and speculation applied to climatology. Well written and easy to understand, the book addresses the basic elements of the main problems. It presents evidence from both sides, pointing out that the greenhouse effect is well established, but the positive returns are not. The fear of CO2 as advocated by the IPCC and others is attributed to feedback from experience. The book briefly discusses the benefits and costs of increasing CO2, with costs that lack physical evidence, such as rising sea levels and ocean acidification.
Spencer quotes the comments of Charles Mackay used in the quote of the week. This fits very well with the current era of climate science. He asks five big questions:
1) "Is global warming and associated climate change mainly of human origin?
2) Are the part of man-made warming and associated climate change important enough to cause damage?
3) Are the climate models we use [to] Do the proposed energy policies provide for climate change with precision?
4) Would the proposed policy changes substantially reduce climate change and the resulting damage?
5) Would policy changes do more good than harm humanity?
"The answers to the five questions must be" yes "in order to make substantial changes to our energy policies beyond the dictates of free market forces. However, it is not obvious to me that the answer to one of the five is "yes". "
Among the many questions it raises, there is the accuracy of natural energy flows, which is not well known. Without compiling the knowledge derived from the measurements, and not the calculations used in unvalidated models, we can not establish that the warming resulting from a doubling of CO2 will be different from a modest 1.2 ºC, although less than the IPCC claims.
TWTW Comment: This estimate is consistent with estimates by William Happer, van Wijngaarden and others. To achieve a doubling of CO2 from the current level of just over 400 parts per million (ppm), more fossil fuels would have to be burned than there were in the world. Moreover, it is doubtful that even this would be enough to prevent a future inevitable ice age, a real deadly climate.
Spencer points out that even though a research paper assumes that CO2 is causing global warming, this is not necessarily true, then says:
"Why do not more papers tackle the thorny issue of determining how warming is natural compared to anthropogenic?" For at least three reasons:
1) We can not separate human causes from natural warming (there are no human fingerprints).
2) We do not understand the natural causes of climate change.
3) We can not calculate the strength of man-made warming from the first physical principles (the problem of climate sensitivity, discussed later).
Chapter 13; Why is not warming progressing as expected? tackling the big problem of the IPCC's reliance on climate models in its policies.
"Climate models [in use today] probably overestimate the warming because they[the models] produce too much positive feedback, which is necessary for high climate sensitivity. The moderation of direct warming caused by a doubling of CO2 (a little over 1 ° C) is about three times greater in climate models because of the changes induced by the warming of clouds and steam. water, while the [actual] observations suggest that there is little expansion at all.
"The positive feedback processes in climate models are very uncertain, but are responsible for most (about two-thirds) of the warming produced by the models.
While the models are in fact mainly based on fairly well established fundamental physical principles, it is these few poorly understood feedback processes that determine the severity of the problem of global warming. On hundreds of thousands of lines of computer code constituting the models, it may be that only a few lines of code representing very uncertain assumptions about the climate system are mainly responsible for the excessive production [predicted] heating.
That's why I call the defense of climate models by the climate research community "a bait and a switch". The well-understood basic physical principles on which the models are built produce only about 1 degree. C warming in response to 2Xco2, [a doubling of CO2] while the 2 additional degrees. The warming they produce from positive feedbacks is highly speculative. They sell you on well understood physics supporting 1 deg. C for direct heating, but then move on to all 3 degrees of warming that the models produce with similar reliability.
"The way clouds can change with warming (cloud reaction) is particularly uncertain, a fact admitted by modelers. Climate models can not include the real physics of cloud formation and dissipation, because computers are not fast enough to work with the finer details of clouds. In fact, we do not even understand some microphysical details of what is happening in the clouds, preventing us from modeling them, even if the computers were fast enough. "
According to Spencer, the models have clouds forming at a humidity as low as 85%, but in reality, they require a relative humidity of 100%. This is just one of many problems related to climate modeling efforts. To rely on the results of such modeling to establish an energy policy is absurd.
There are a number of good books on the weaknesses of climatology proclaimed by the IPCC and its supporters. It is one of the best.
By the way, using Spencer's numbers and the logic of the IPCC, one could say that IPCC science is one-third of science and two-thirds of fiction. See the links under Challenging Orthodoxy.
Life at its limits: Two articles, both published by the Nature group, evoke the extremes to which life on earth can exist. Both documents dealt with very acidic waters, well beyond any acidity (decrease in alkalinity) by increasing the concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. A paper dealt with hydrothermal vents in the shoals and how life changed after an earthquake and a typhoon changed the warm, sulfur-rich waters with possible recovery within two years. Only a few specialized animal species such as crabs, snails and bacteria live in close proximity to these vents.
The second article dealt with one of the hottest and most acidic places in the world, the Dallol-Danakil polyextreme geothermal area in Ethiopia, where life adapted to life in truly acidic waters, with brine strongly positive dominated by magnesium and calcium ions a pH of about zero. It is not known exactly how the pH is measured, but there are very small extremely diverse arches. [single-cell life forms] have been found. The persistence of life is amazing, contrary to the claim that increasing CO2 emissions endangers life on this planet. See links under Acidic Waters.
Death of a glacier: at a pub blow in August, groups of greens lamented the passage of a glacier in Iceland. Breitbart reports that David Gunnlaugsson, Icelandic Prime Minister from 2013 to 2016, had a different opinion on the death:
"Our climate is changing, but humans are adapting. Instead of scary, we should approach this situation on a scientific and rational basis, "writes Gunnlaugsson in the latest issue of The Spectator.
"When glaciers have spread and destroyed grasslands and farmland, people who have lost their homes would hardly have thought that one day this trend could reverse." , he said, pointing out that when Iceland was first discovered, it was completely covered with forests. "
"In Iceland, we have witnessed profound changes in our natural environment," he said. "Iceland is a country with remarkable natural weathering, and we had to adapt to that. We are aware that humans must respect the forces of nature, but history has also shown us the power of human ingenuity and our ability to survive. "
It is unlikely that Gunnlaugsson will join the COP-25 party to save the planet.
Tipping points: The Nature group has published another document on tipping points, beyond which it is impossible to prevent any change in the climate system. As the Earth's climate has been warming and cooling for hundreds of millions of years, with large differences in temperature, it seems that the latest exercise is another exercise designed to frighten children. See links under Better communication with the public – Exaggerating or being vague? and better communicate with the public – Inventing things.
Additions and corrections: Last week's TWTW explained that crop yields in the United States in 2019 were below the trend line for the first time in six years. William Dwyer wrote that one of the benefits of this poor harvest may be the decline in inventory over recent years. The tonnage of corn and beans in storage silos has been considerable in recent years.
In discussing "protection insurance" last week, TWTW left out a key clause establishing the analogy. When gangsters offer "protection insurance," they usually have real control over the thugs who destroy businesses. With its $ 100 million a year in funds in its "Green Climate Fund," the UN estimates that it can put an end to CO2 emissions, thus ending dangerous climate change. The UN has no control over China's CO2 emissions and CO2 plays a less active role in the fight against climate change. So, the UN can not control either and no one should feel obligated to pay for its protection. See the discussion above on Roy Spencer's book and links under After Paris!
Number of the week: 63.6% of US electricity. According to the US Energy Information Administration, in 2018, fossil fuels were used to generate 63.6% of US electricity, natural gas generating 35.2% and coal, 27.5% . Nuclear energy generated 19.4%. Renewable energies generated 16.9%, hydropower at 7%, wind at 6.5%, solar energy at 1.5%. 1.4% biomass and miscellaneous.
According to a chart used by CNN, demand for coal in the electricity sector is expected to drop to the lowest level since 1978 in 2020. In the late 1970s, the US government banned the use of oil and gas for power plants, promoting coal replacement. It took ten years, but the US government finally realized the folly of banning oil, and especially gas, for power plants. Green groups that promote renewable energies often fail to mention their opposition to hydropower, which is included in renewable energy.
See links under Energy Issues – US and https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3.
NEWS THAT YOU CAN USE:
Ten years after the summit, scientists have won – but what about the rest of the world?
By Brian Kahn, GIZMODO, November 20, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Won what? The IPCC still uses science fiction to frighten people.]
Deletion of the scientific inquiry
Scientists criticize free scientific intimidation … Dr. Benny Peiser: "We are living a very tragic time" in Germany!
By P Gosselin, Zone Sans Part, Nov. 26, 2019
"Last weekend in Munich, the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE) held its 13th annual conference on climate and energy. According to EIKE, more than 200 people attended, making it the most successful so far. "
Climate scientists reduced to hiding from the climate war in Germany
By James Taylor, City Hall, November 22, 2019
Challenging Orthodoxy – NIPCC
Climate change reconsidered II: physical science
Idso, Carter and Singer, Lead Authors / Publishers, International Non-Governmental Climate Change Group (NIPCC), 2013
Climate change reconsidered II: biological impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter and Singer, Lead Authors / Publishers, International Non-Governmental Climate Change Group (NIPCC), 2014
Climate change reconsidered II: fossil fuels
By several authors, editions Bezdek, Idso, Legates and Singer, International Non-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, April 2019.
Why scientists do not agree on global warming
The NIPCC report on the scientific consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter and S. Fred Singer, International Non-Governmental Climate Change Group (NIPCC), November 23, 2015
Nature, not human activity, governs the climate
S. Fred Singer, Publisher, NIPCC, 2008
Overall rise in sea level: data evaluation
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Clive James, legendary author, poet, humorist and climate skeptic is dead
By Staff, GWPF, November 27, 2019
Skepticism about global warming for the employed
By Roy Spencer, Kindle Edition, 2018
Does the increase in atmospheric CO2 cause dangerous global warming?
The absence of a climatic disaster
By Craig Idso, Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, November 25, 2019
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, November 27, 2019
"This discussion with Mark Steyn is the only time Steve McIntyre, Ross McKitrick and Anthony Watts appeared together on stage."
There is no climate emergency – the truth that led a Lib Dem doolally
By Harry Wilkinson, The Conservative Woman, November 28, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Former Prime Minister of Iceland: "Panic does not panic"
By Thomas Williams, Breitbart, November 22, 2019 [H/t Paul Homewood]
New video: The low carbon climate of 1921
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, November 29, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Meteorological Mumps?]
"All the shots are blazing" as Madrid travels to the climate summit
By Diego Urdaneta, Madrid (AFP) on November 22, 2019
COP25 Press Release: UN wants global carbon market
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, November 29, 2019
Link to the press release: The COP25 will be the launcher of many more climatic ambitions
By Staff, UNFCC, replaced by United Nations Climate Change, November 29, 2019
Earth System Alert
By Johan Rockström (PIK), Joyeeta Gupta and Dahe Qin, Project Syndicate, November 29, 2019
In areas where intergovernmental negotiating bodies – such as the United Nations conventions on biological diversity, desertification control and the law of the sea – are already working on the definition of science-based goals, the coalition will support this work.
[SEPP Comment: The UN fails to acknowledge that additional CO2 is greening the planet and making plants more efficient in using water.]
Panic button of the United Nations: Mass extinctions by 2100, even with the promises of the Paris Agreement on the climate
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, November 26, 2019
Link to the report: 2018 Emissions Spreads Report
By Staff, United Nations Environment Program, 2019
[SEPP Comment: The UN continues to assume that it has produced the physical evidence firmly establishing a link between CO2 and global temperatures while excluding natural variation. As stated above, it has not..]
The five corrupt pillars of denial of climate change
By Mark Maslin, Professor of Earth System Science, UCL, United Kingdom, Via The Conversation, November 28, 2019
"The fundamental question is why do we allow people with the most powerful privileges and powers to convince us to delay saving our planet from climate change?
[SEPP Comment: According to the author’s numbers, the total annual climate lobbying spending of the five largest publicly-owned oil & gas companies is $201 million. No guess of the billions spent each year by government and green groups to falsely claim that CO2 is the primary cause of climate change.]
To question orthodoxy
Why apocalyptic claims about climate change are wrong
By Michael Shellenberger, Forbes, November 25, 2019
The very small crisis
By John Robson, Nexus for Climate Debate, November 27, 2019
"With radiative forcing, we are in the last situation. At the current rate of human emissions, it would take 550 years for the increase in radiative forcing to be greater than the range of measurement error.
"So you see why we have trouble believing there is an emergency."
The big scam of global warming
If we have only heard one side of the debate, we can not claim to be fully informed.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, November 27, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Includes Tim Ball and Nir Shaviv.]
The apocalyptic path of global warming
It arrives in waves and it is impossible to predict what will happen after the wave of activism more and more unbalanced in the face of climate change.
By Rael Jean Isaac, The American Spectator, November 21, 2019
By Dave Ball, American thinker, November 27, 2019
China says it has already achieved 2020 climate targets
By New York Post Staff, November 27, 2019
China proves it: Obama was really a sap
Editorial, I & I, November 29, 2019
Europe is losing climate war climate as China demands 100 billion dollars
By Staff, Business Times, via GWPF, November 29, 2019
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Our green planet … German science magazine: Satellite images prove that the world's vegetation has spread more and more for decades
An "unusual greening of the planet," reports the German scientific magazine Wissenschaft. "A paradox."
By P Gosselin, Zone Sans Part, November 28, 2019
[SEPP Comment: A commentator on the article states: “…the translator obviously didn’t read the article carefully. One of the conclusions is, that at some point the growing CO2 part in the air will kill the plants. It is absolutely consistent with the narrative of climate alarmism.” But at what point – 40,000 parts per million (ppm), 100 times today’s concentration or 400,000 ppm, a thousand times today’s concentration?]
Problems in orthodoxy
EU carbon tax at EU borders will undermine global efforts on climate change, said China
Countries "must prevent unilateralism and protectionism from undermining expectations for global growth," said China's deputy minister of the environment
The new tax aims to protect European companies from unfair competition by increasing the cost of products from countries that do not act against climate change.
By Staff, Reuters, South China Morning Post November 27, 2019
European consensus broken as 225 MPs vote against "climate emergency"
Press release, European Climate Realist Network, 28 Nov. 2019
[SEPP Comment: Another failure of the 97% consensus?]
Looking for a common ground
Myths on climate migration
By Ingrid Boas, Carol Farbotko and Mike Hulm, Nature Climate Change, November 26, 2019
"First, research and research funding must allow for the assumption that climate change is causing the questioning of massive human migration, rather than merely reinforcing it. There is already ample evidence that migration is not solely motivated by climate change.
Review of recent scientific articles by CO2 Science
A simple visual display of wheat biomass induced by CO2 and water use efficiency increases
Li, P., Hao, X., Aryal, M., Thompson, M. and Seneweera, S. 2019. High intake of carbon dioxide and nitrogen affects photosynthesis and partitioning of two nitrogen wheat varieties. Journal of Plant Nutrition 42: 1290-1300. 25 nov. 2019
Problèmes de mesure – Surface
Plus de données réelles totalement contradictoires avec les faux médias… Montrez la Scandinavie et l'Irlande sans vous réchauffer au cours des dernières décennies
Par Kirye et Pierre Gosselin, Zone sans astuces, 27 novembre 2019
Problèmes de mesure – Atmosphère
Les concentrations de gaz à effet de serre dans l'atmosphère atteignent un nouveau record
Communiqué de presse de l'OMM, 25 nov. 2019
[SEPP Comment: Typical UN chart with the base at 340 ppm rather than zero!]
Juste les faits sur les ouragans
Par Roger Pielke, Forbes, 24 novembre 2019
Cerises sous la pluie
Par John Robson, Nexus pour le débat sur le climat, 27 novembre 2019
Lien vers le document: Évaluation des changements dans les précipitations régionales américaines sur plusieurs échelles de temps
Par Ross McKitrick et John Christy, Journal of Hydrology, novembre 2019
Un cyclone à la bombe va frapper la côte sud de l'Oregon
Par Cliff Mass, Blog sur le temps et le climat, 25 novembre 2019
«Un bombardier-cyclone en plein essor va frapper demain la côte sud de l'Oregon, avec des rafales de vent, des vagues gigantesques et de nombreuses précipitations.
«L’expression« bombe météorologique »désigne un cyclone de moyenne altitude dont la pression centrale diminue de plus de 24 millibars (ou 24 hPa) en 24 heures (le critère dépend du degré de latitude mais celui-ci est suffisamment proche). Cette tempête va détruire ce critère. "
[SEPP Comment: At least Mass explains the “headline grabbing” vocabulary. Later posts show the severe storm occurred.]
Tournée d'urgence sur le climat: Édition ouragan
Par John Robson, Nexus pour le débat sur le climat, 27 novembre 2019
El Nino voit des fluctuations extrêmes à l'ère industrielle
Par Staff Writers, Atlanta GA (SPX), 25 novembre 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
Lien au document: Variabilité accrue El Niño ‐ Oscillation Australe au cours des dernières décennies
Par Pamela Grothe et al. Lettres de recherche géophysique, 25 octobre 2019
Extrait de l'abstraction: «Nous reconstruisons ici la force des variations ENSO au cours des 7 000 dernières années avec un nouvel ensemble d'enregistrements d'isotopes d'oxygène coralliens fossiles provenant des îles de la Ligne, situées dans le Pacifique équatorial central. Les coraux documentent une diminution significative de la variance ENSO d'environ 20% entre 3 000 et 5 000 ans, ce qui coïncide avec les modifications de l'insolation précessionnelle du printemps / automne. Nous constatons que la variabilité ENSO au cours des cinq dernières décennies est environ 25% plus forte qu’au cours de la période préindustrielle. "
Toute la côte de la Nouvelle-Galles du Sud enveloppée de poussière et de fumée, 47 ° C à Hunter Valley (il y a 75 ans)
Par Jo Nova, son blog, 25 novembre 2019
Venise et le climat non éclairé
Par Jim Steele, Paysages et cycles, 17 novembre 2019
[SEPP Comment: A more complete analysis of Venice, with maps, than presented in TWTW last week, explaining why the government response to the 1966 floods did not work. Governments now blame their incompetence on climate change.]
Un nouveau document présente des preuves photographiques affirmant que les niveaux de la mer dans la région équatoriale ont baissé depuis les années 1600
Par Kenneth Richard, Zone sans astuces, 29 novembre 2019
Lien au papier: Biologie et morphologie du rivage: clés pour une reconstruction correcte du niveau de la mer
Par Nils-Axel Mörner, Journal de biologie marine et Aquascape, 6 mars 2019
Cryosphère changeante – Glace terrestre / marine
Nouvelle étude: il y a 6500 ans, la mer de l'Ouest de Barents était libre de glace et 10 ° C plus chaude que 2015
Par Kenneth Richard, Zone sans astuces, 25 novembre 2019
Lien au papier: Paléoocéanographie postglaciaire de la mer de Barents occidentale: conséquences pour les températures de surface de la mer à base d'alcénone et la productivité primaire
Par Magdalena Łącka et al. Avis sur la science quaternaire, 15 novembre 2019
Nouvelles de choc – L'Arctique gèle en hiver!
Par Paul Homewood, peu de gens le savent, 27 novembre 2019
"Il est regrettable que la réputation de la NASA, durement gagnée au fil des ans, soit détruite par une petite minorité plus intéressée par la propagande."
Rappelez-vous la connaissance traditionnelle?
Par John Robson, Nexus pour le débat sur le climat, 27 novembre 2019
[SEPP Comment: The Inuit may know more about polar bears than the experts.]
Terre en mutation
Trois fois la tectonique a changé le climat
Cinquante ans après la naissance de la théorie moderne de la tectonique des plaques, un groupe de chercheurs met en évidence trois exemples clés de la façon dont la couche externe changeante de notre planète a modifié notre climat.
Par Javier Barbuzano, EOS, 22 novembre 2019
https: //eos.org/features/three-times-tectonics-changed-the-climate \
Durant le Pliocène, il y a environ 3 millions d'années, les niveaux de dioxyde de carbone (CO2) dans l'atmosphère étaient similaires à ceux que nous connaissons aujourd'hui. Ensuite, la température était de 2 ° C plus chaude et le niveau de la mer 15 fois plus élevé.
[SEPP Comment: Sea level was 15 times higher!!! ]
Scientists find a place on Earth where there is no life
Press Release, FECUT – Spanish Foundation for Science and Technology, EurekAlert, Nov 22, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Link to paper: Hyperdiverse archaea near life limits at the polyextreme geothermal Dallol area
By Jodie Belilla, et al., Nature, Ecology & Evolution, Oct 28, 2019
Life under extreme conditions at hot springs in the ocean
By Staff Writers, Kiel, Germany (SPX), Nov 22, 2019
Link to paper: Earthquake and typhoon trigger unprecedented transient shifts in shallow hydrothermal vents biogeochemistry
By Mario Lebrato, et al. Nature, Science Reports, Nov 15, 2019
The Total Myth of Ocean Acidification
By David Middleton, WUWT, June 6, 2019
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Indian Farmers Rejoice as Best Monsoon in 25 Years Vanquishes Climate Fears
By Vijay Jayaraj, Cornwall Alliance, Nov 21, 2019
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Stalled weather patterns will get bigger due to climate change
Study uncovers relationship between jet stream, atmospheric blocking events
Mathematical formula relates size of atmospheric blocking events to the jet stream.
By Staff, NSF, Nov 21, 2019
Link to paper: Size of the Atmospheric Blocking Events: Scaling Law and Response to Climate Change
By Ebrahim Nabizadeh, Pedram Hassanzadeh, Da Yang & Elizabeth A. Barnes, Geophysical Research Letters, Nov 9, 2019
“Using data from two sets of comprehensive climate model simulations, Rice scientists Ebrahim Nabizadeh and Pedram Hassanzadeh and colleagues found that the area of blocking events in the Northern Hemisphere will increase by as much as 17% due to human-caused climate change.”
[SEPP Comment: Climate models cannot simulate the current atmosphere, but it is claimed they can simulate much more? See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?]
NOAA Blocks Access To Their Temperature Data
By Tony Heller, Real Climate Science, Nov 27, 2019
“Status of the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily
“(Additional information on GHCNd is available in the readme.txt file.)
“November 20, 2019
“Internal hardware issues have prevented daily updates to GHCNd since 17 November 2019. The issue is being addressed and an update is expected early on 21 November 2019.
[ SEPP Comment: Given the history of NOAA’s adjustments to the US database, there is solid reason to be highly skeptical.]
UN report: Unprecedented measures needed to avoid worst effects of climate change
By Miranda Green and John Bowden, The Hill, Nov 26, 2019
The link to the report leads to an article in the Washington Post with no link to the report
In bleak report, U.N. says drastic action is only way to avoid worst effects of climate change
“We need to catch up on the years in which we procrastinated,” a top official says.
By Brady Dennis, Washington Post, Nov 26, 2019
No link to the report
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate or be Vague?
A battle for the jet stream is raging above our heads
By Tim Woollings, The Conversation, Nov 14, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Link to book: Jet Stream: A Journey Through our Changing Climate
By Tim Woolings, Oxford University Press, To be published
“So, the jet may not become more erratic as the Arctic warms, but it may well change profoundly. And one thing is clear: the stress of increased temperatures and altered rainfall patterns from our destabilising climate will leave us even more vulnerable to the weather patterns brought by the whim of the wandering jet stream.” [Boldface Added]
[SEPP Comment: Exactly when has the climate been stable? During Ice Ages?]
Climate Change To World: “Honey, I Shrunk The Jet Stream!”
By Jaime Jessop, Climate Scepticism, Nov 25, 2019 [H/t Paul Homewood]
“Personally, I’m not convinced by either. There certainly is a battle for the jet stream but it’s not raging overhead, as suggested by Woolings at the Con, it’s raging in climate alarmist world to see who can ‘prove’ first that global warming is altering the jet stream ‘dangerously’ to give us more frequent and severe extreme weather, in both winter and summer.”
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Guardian Climate emergency: world ‘may have crossed tipping points’
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 27, 2019
Link to paper: Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against
The growing threat of abrupt and irreversible climate changes must compel political and economic action on emissions.
By Timothy M. Lenton, Johan Rockström, Owen Gaffney, Stefan Rahmstorf, Katherine Richardson, Will Steffen & Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Nature, Nov 27, 2019
Harrabin’s Tipping Point Junk Science
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 28, 2019
“If these imaginary tipping points really existed, the world would have undergone runaway warming then.”
[SEPP Comment: Or runaway cooling. See links immediately above]]
Global Warming Claim: More Blockbuster Snowstorms, Less Snow
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 28, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Nine climate tipping points now ‘active,’ warn scientists
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Nov 27, 2019
Alarmist Propose Rebranding ‘Climate Change’ for Greater Shock Value
By Thomas Williams, Breitbart, Nov 29, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
‘Climate change is a disability rights issue’
Press Release, University of Konstanz, EurekAlert, Nov 26, 2019, [H/t WUWT]
Environmental change in Africa: Will it lead to a drying Lake Victoria?
Researchers develop model to project levels in world’s largest tropical lake
By Staff, NSF, Nov 21, 2019
“Lake Victoria gets most of its water from rain — about 55 inches each year. The sediment analyzed from locations along the lake shows that rainfall levels 35,000 to 100,000 years ago were about 28 inches, or almost half what they are today.”
[SEPP Comment: When the earth was in the midst of an ice age with fresh water locked up in thousands of feet of ice, rainfall was less. Will we get the same results from global warming as from global cooling? See link immediately below]
Victoria Falls Drying Up–Latest BBC Fake News
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 27, 2019
See link immediately above
Losing Nemo: clownfish ‘cannot adapt to climate change’
By Staff Writers, Paris (AFP), Nov 26, 2019
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change last year warned that under 1.5C of warming Earth would lose at least 70 percent of its coral reefs.
“Under 2C of warming coral, and the vital ecosystems it supports, would be virtually wiped out.”
[SEPP Comment: As discussed in TWTW last week, Jennifer Marohasy has filmed live corals where they were supposedly wiped out.]
The year in review in advance
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 27, 2019
“See, we’re anti-science. We have the trial first and the verdict later.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Dumb poll, fake headline: Not climate change, 70% of Australians want cheap reliable electricity, 61% biggest worry is “cost of living”.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 27, 2019
98% of air passengers don’t care enough about climate change to buy a carbon offset
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 27, 2019
“The researchers believe that climate change and the resulting loss of ecosystem services will affect the world’s disabled populations disproportionately by exacerbating inequalities and increasing marginalization.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Tipping point in civilization: Experts say “listen to children” (sure, the adults are wrong)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 29, 2019
Climate Activists Aren’t Joking
Saving the planet: the all-purpose, never-ending justification for more taxes, control, and deprivation.
By Donna Laframboise, Big Picture News, Nov 25, 2019
“A headline in the India Times declares Greta ‘The Role Model Everyone Needs.’
“An employee of the David Suzuki Foundation, writing in Canada’s largest newspaper, says Greta is ‘an inspiration to millions of people for a multitude of reasons.’
The founder of Women Who Sail says Greta ‘is the great saint of our time.’
“In every corner of every local, provincial, national, and international organization, Greta’s worldview is being promoted. Climate activists are working tirelessly, behind the scenes, to make it everyone’s reality.
“These people don’t value human accomplishment or technology. They don’t value your time. Nor do they value your freedom. They’re extremists who are prepared to sacrifice everything ‘for the good of the planet.’”
FT: Chinese Nationalists Turn on Climate Messiah Greta Thunberg
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 25, 2019
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Huge Disruption As 10.000 Farmers & 5000 Tractors Shut Down Berlin
By Staff, GWPF, Nov 26, 2019
French Farmers Descend on Paris in Fresh Revolt Against Globalist Regulations
Tractors block roads in protest against agricultural industry being blamed for climate change.
By Paul Joseph Watson, Infowars.com, Nov 27, 2019 [H/t Joe Tomlinson]
Farmers bring central Dublin to a halt with tractor protest
By Padraic Halpin, Reuters, Nov 27, 2019
Extinction Rebellion Are ‘Destructive’ And ‘Unsupportive’, Royal Academy of Engineering Warns
By Staff, The Daily Telegraph, Via GWPF, Nov 27, 2019
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Climate emergency: EU is governed by trash
By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame, Nov 29, 2019
Link to Adopted Text: Climate and environmental emergency
European Parliament resolution of 28 November 2019 on the climate and environment
Questioning European Green
Extreme Green Poverty: Germans Face €44 Billion Bill For Electricity Alone In 2020
By Staff, GWPF & BDEW, Nov 29, 2019
Government should lead by example and target net-zero pre-2050, MPs urge
By Staff, Edie Newsroom, Nov 5, 2019 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
No Plan B for Planet A
Replacing fossil fuels with “renewable” energy would devastate the only planet we’ve got
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Nov 25, 2019
Green Energy Studies: Consulting, or Advertising?
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Nov 27, 2019
New York State’s Plan Uses 63% Unreliable Source
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Nov 26, 2019
“New York State’s plan for eliminating GHG will result in a huge increase in the cost of electricity and will force residents to depend on unreliable sources for their electricity.”
[SEPP Comment: Governor Cuomo’s energy plan may be from a song by Frank Sinatra: “Call me irresponsible, call me unreliable; Throw in undependable too.”]
Sacrificed on Victoria’s Green Altar
By Alan Moran, Quadrant, Nov 27, 2019
Increasingly Powerful Headwinds Ahead: Germany’s Wind Industry Faces Extinction …”Several 10,000 Jobs Lost “
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 24, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Hard to establish the difference between special pleading by the wind industry and actual losses that may occur.]
IPPR: UK should pay £20bn into UN climate fund
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 29, 2019
[SEPP Comment: A problem with the Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR) and many others promoting green goals is that not everyone thinks and believes as they do, thus they cannot understand it possible that others do not support their policies.]
US, EU ‘Owe Half The Cost’ of Repairing Climate Damage
By Staff Writer, The Globe Post, Nov 25, 2019 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
[SEPP Comment: Send invoices to the rest of the world for improvements to life from the use of fossil fuels and electricity.]
The Political Games Continue
No Amount Of Disastrous Failure Can Kill The Fantasy Of A Government-Directed “Great Society”
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Nov 25, 2019
[Supreme Court Justice] Alito pens fiery dissent after court declines to hear dispute between climate professor, National Review
By Tyler Olson, Fox News, Nov 26, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
“Mann’s case against the magazine stems from his creation of the infamous ‘hockey stick graph’ and a central role in the ‘Climategate’ scandal — in which his employer, Penn State University, eventually cleared him of wrongdoing.”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Science and economics trump government mandates with climate change
By Richard Rahn, Washington Times, Nov 25, 2019
EPA and other Regulators on the March
DOE should revive the Office of Policy Analysis
By David Wojick, CFACT, Nov 29, 2019
Energy Issues – Non-US
Montney Python’s Frac’ing Circus [Canada]
By David Middleton, WUWT, nov 26, 2019
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 27, 2019
Energy Issues – Australia
Class action win: 2011 floods were man-made — seemingly managed as if “the dams would never fill”?
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 30, 2019
Energy Issues — US
What’s Driving Wholesale Power Price Changes? Not What You Think
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Nov 27, 2019
Link to report: Impact of Wind, Solar, and Other Factors on Wholesale Power Prices: An Historical Analysis—2008 through 2017
By Andrews Mills, et al. Berkley Lab, Nov 2019
From the abstract: “We show that wind and solar have contributed to reductions in overall average annual wholesale electricity prices since 2008, but that natural gas prices have had the largest impact. More notable is that expansion of variable renewable energy has led to significant changes in locational, time of day, and seasonal pricing patterns in some regions. These altered pricing patterns reflect a fundamental shift and hold important implications for the grid-system value of wind and solar, and for other electric-sector planning and operating decisions.”
[SEPP Comment: Not listed among the price drivers are subsidies and mandates. If electricity generators pay to have someone take their electricity, then their subsidies are far too high. This is occurring in Texas.]
Carbon intensity of power sector down in 2019
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Nov 28, 2019
[Note the link to EurekAlert! is not correct. It linked to an essay stating:” Nine climate tipping points now ‘active,’ warn scientists.” https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-11/uoe-nct112519.php]
‘It will be hard for people’; Coal plant near Lake Powell stops production after nearly 50 years
By Felicia Fonseca, AP, Via St George News, Nov 19, 2019 [H/t Steve Scare]
More Than 50 Coal Companies Have Been Wiped Out Since Trump’s 2016 Victory
By Chris White, Daily Caller, Nov 23, 2019
Solar, wind and hydro power could soon surpass coal
By Matt Egan, CNN Business, Nov 26, 2019
Massachusetts Town Votes for Freezing in the Dark
Brookline, in a State which already has the second most expensive residential electricity prices in the Lower 48, wants to force its residents to switch from heating with natural gas to heating with electricity generated from Russian natural gas…
By David Middleton, WUWT, Nov 25, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Doubt that those voting understood where Brookline gets its electricity.]
Return of King Coal?
Once a clean energy leader, China is now reviving coal
The world’s biggest carbon emitter is doubling down on coal, a new report finds, and global investment in clean energy is faltering.
By Alex Fox, The Hill, Nov 25, 2019
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Energy & Environmental Newsletter: November 25, 2019
By John Droz, Master Resource, Nov 25, 2019
Department of Energy Announces $43 Million to Develop Carbon Capture and Storage Technology
By Staff, DOE, Nov 14, 2019 [H/t WUWT]
Health, Energy, and Climate
Mikko Paunio: The Lancet Countdown Report Is Dangerous Nonsense
By Mikko Paunio, MD, MHS adjunct professor in epidemiology at the University of Helsinki, Via GWPF, Nov 25, 2019
Can You Trust What Medical Journals Publish?
By John Dale Dunn, American Thinker, Nov 29, 2019
Climate Change Is also a Health Crisis
By Maria Neira, Project Syndication, Nov 29, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Electricity from fossil fuels creates a crisis for human health?]
Other Scientific News
In possible climate breakthrough, Israel scientists engineer bacteria to eat CO₂
Decade-long research at Weizmann Institute could pave way for low-emissions production of carbon for use in biofuels, food, and help remove excess global warming CO₂ from air
By Sue Surkes, The Times of Israel, Nov 28, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Scientists sequence genome of devil worm, deepest-living animal
By Brooks Hays, Washington (UPI), Nov 22, 2019
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Beavers brought in to beat flooding in Britain
By Staff Writers, London (AFP), Nov 20, 2019
[SEPP Comment: Beavers building dams upstream will remove the need for dredging downstream? What about the trees the beavers will remove?]
An engineer has devised a way to stop Arctic ice from melting by scattering millions of tiny glass beads to reflect sunlight away
By Aylin Woodward, Business Insider, Oct 26, 2019 [H/t Joe Tomlison]
We’re all going to die: Alarmists in our midst
By Steven Boykey Sidley, Daily Maverick, Nov 27, 2019 [H/t GWPF]
Why Our Electrical System Isn’t Ready for a Lower-Carbon Future
By Jason Bordoff, WSJ, Nov 27, 2019
TWTW Summary: After discussing the California blackouts, the former senior director of the National Security Council and energy adviser to President Obama writes:
“California isn’t alone, as widespread power outages have left millions without power in recent years from India to Japan to Puerto Rico—the last causing triggering [sic]a humanitarian crisis.
“As harmful as these power cuts have been, their impact has been limited by the fact that electricity isn’t used more widely. The lights go out but our cars and trucks can usually keep moving. This will change if we move to electrify more of the economy in order to mitigate the impacts of climate change without properly investing in our electric grids.
“Climate change is already a severe and escalating threat, and stronger action to address it likely involves widespread (though not 100%) electrification of the economy, including transportation and buildings, and a dramatic increase in the share of electricity that comes from zero-carbon sources. [TWTW questions the assumption that climate change is a severe and escalating threat.]
“Electricity supplies, while highly reliable in the U.S., are still prone to outages, as California’s experience reminds us. To be sure, the situation in California is extreme. The necessity for power cuts to reduce fire risk follows years of underinvestment in equipment and safety at PG&E. But issues with electricity reliability are not unique to California. Customers in Maine and Florida, for example, averaged 40 hours of power cuts in 2017. According to the American Society of Civil Engineers, there will be a nearly $95 billion investment gap in electricity grid modernization across the U.S. by 2020, increasing the risk of blackouts.
“Of course, fuel supplies are vulnerable, too. Pipelines can rupture, hurricanes can damage offshore platforms, and geopolitical instability can disrupt oil flows. Locally, when the power goes out, gas pumps stop pumping. Indeed, when the fuel supply is disrupted, the most frequent cause is loss of electrical power, which is why New York recently required gasoline stations to have backup generators.
“Still, the shift to electrification can exacerbate some of these fuel-supply vulnerabilities. It would be far more difficult to power electric vehicles with generators in an emergency than gas stations, for example, given that they are charged more diffusely at homes than at centralized charging stations. Moreover, the average car with a full gasoline tank can run for twice as long without refilling as an average fully charged EV.
“Oil shortages of the 1970s are a far more remote possibility in today’s highly interconnected global oil market. Furthermore, unlike electricity, when gasoline and diesel supply in a certain location is disrupted, other supplies may be brought in by other means like truck or barge from neighboring areas—assuming price signals provide the right economic incentive. Battery technology has improved dramatically, but electricity is more expensive and difficult to transport and store than liquid fuel for long periods.
Let’s remember as well that climate change is a global problem. A ton of greenhouse gas emissions contributes equally to the problem regardless of where it comes from. This means that keeping temperature rise in check will require widespread electrification of transportation not just in the U.S., but around the world. And the electricity system in many emerging markets is far less reliable than it is in the U.S. If you think recent power cuts may pose a barrier to electric vehicle uptake in California, imagine being a driver in Pakistan where electricity outages average more than 13 hours per day.
To be clear, electricity reliability concerns are not a reason to delay the electrification of transportation, buildings and other parts of the clean energy economy. Rather, California’s electricity crisis is a reminder that policymakers and industry need to prioritize improving electricity system reliability and resilience.
Following the oil shortages of the 1970s, countries came together and agreed to hold oil in strategic reserves to prevent similar supply crises in the future. Replacing strategic crude and refined product stocks with electricity storage of equal capacity is neither feasible nor cost-effective.
Rather, policymakers need to prioritize closing the current grid investment shortfalls and boosting reliability and resilience by building new transmission lines to relieve system bottlenecks and eliminate single points of system failure; expanding the use of microgrids and energy storage; leveraging grid modernization technologies; creating incentives for demand-side management and distributed generation; improving maintenance and system operation; and introducing new modeling and technology tools (such as artificial intelligence) to predict problems before they occur. [Boldface added.]
Electrifying the transportation sector will not happen if motorists worry that they won’t be able to reliably fuel up their cars. Assuaging those concerns requires regulators to prioritize investments to modernize our grids to improve our energy security. Northern California’s decade of planned blackouts should serve as a wake-up call to regulators everywhere to redouble efforts to boost the reliability and resilience of the electricity system in order to support the low-carbon transition.
[TWTW Comment: We cannot predict the weather, why assume we can predict weather dependent electricity generation?]