Visitor "I advised you so" by David Middleton
Jan 13, 2020, 10:33 AM
Texas Energy Technology: was coal blown away?
College of Houston Power Fellows Collaborator Group
We’re thought leaders in vitality from the College of Houston.
Ramanan Krishnamoorti, Director of Power and Ed Hirs, Lecturer, Division of Economics
The steep drop in coal-fired electrical energy manufacturing in Texas, from 32% of consumption in 2017 to 20% in 2019, has been hailed as crucial step in decarbonizing manufacturing of electrical energy in Texas. Media reviews counsel that the fast disappearance of coal is the results of the expansion of wind vitality.
The information suggests a extra complicated narrative. Whereas wind energy has grown significantly, notably at the beginning of the final decade, the decline in coal is essentially as a result of restoration of the pure gasoline business.
Texas electrical energy manufacturing information for the previous three years point out that coal has as an alternative been largely changed by pure gasoline development and solely to a small extent due to the wind. Particularly, the expansion in high-efficiency mixed cycle pure gasoline manufacturing has pushed a lot of the push to interchange growing old coal belongings. Coal-fired electrical energy manufacturing is anticipated to proceed to say no as extra coal-fired energy vegetation are withdrawn in favor of renewable energies (wind and photo voltaic) and, extra continuously, of electrical energy manufacturing in pure gasoline.
You will need to perceive the transformation of the electrical combination: pure gasoline derived from shale reservoirs with hydraulic fracturing was the principle driver. As well as, coupled with an oversupply of low-cost pure gasoline, the shift from many growing old low-efficiency pure gasoline vegetation to high-efficiency mixed cycle vegetation has contributed to the resurgence of gas-based vitality pure by drastically reducing the price of produced electrical energy.
Since 2017, gasoline has kicked @ $$, whereas the wind has fallen even within the Lone Star State…
"Annual distribution of electrical energy era sources in Texas (proportion): developments over the previous three years. ERCOT ”Forbes“ Annual distribution of sources of electrical energy manufacturing in Texas (proportion) over the interval 2007-2019 RAMANAN KRISHNAMOORTI BASED ON ERCC INFORMATION ”Forbes
Wind energy has gone from zero to about ± 20% of Texas manufacturing capability for 2 (2) causes:
Bodily geographyA $ 7 billion "funding" in aggressive renewable vitality areas
Bodily geography: the Llano Estacado
The Llano Estacado, generally referred to as staked plains however maybe extra precisely interpreted because the "palisaded" plains in geological phrases, is the southern extension of the excessive plains of North America and is discovered at south of the Canadian River northwest of Texas and northeast of New Mexico. . A excessive sloping mesa at a price of about ten ft per mile to the southeast, it is without doubt one of the largest plateaus on the continent. This excessive flat land is situated between 101 ° and 104 ° west longitude and 31 ° and 35 ° north latitude. It’s clearly bounded to the north by the southern escarpment of the Canadian River Valley and to the east by the irregular and deeply incised Caprock escarpment. The western boundary is the Mescalero Escarpment east of the Pecos River Valley in New Mexico. The southern finish of the plateau has no distinct bodily boundary; it merges into the Edwards Plateau, and the Johnson Creek department of the Colorado River, east of Huge Spring, might be greatest seen as its boundary. The Llano Estacado includes all or a part of thirty-three Texas and 4 counties in New Mexico and covers roughly 32,000 sq. miles, an space bigger than all of New England. It’s a part of what was recognized to early explorers and settlers because the Nice American Desert, a semi-arid area with common annual precipitation of 18 to 20 inches. The soils are virtually all darkish brown to reddish brown sands, sandy loams and clay loams.
Texas State Historic Affiliation
Be aware the correlation of the Llano Estacado with the Texas wind useful resource.
Llano Estacado (Journeys) 80 meter Texas Wind Useful resource Map (NREL)
The Llano Estacado and the remainder of the decrease plains have essentially the most fixed onshore wind useful resource on this United States tangentially.
Seasonal wind era patterns fluctuate throughout the USA (EIA)
Aggressive renewable vitality zones
As well as, the sharp drop in the price of put in wind capability, in addition to manufacturing tax credit (PTC) for wind, have contributed to the event of wind energy. In Texas, the foresight to authorize and pay almost $ 7 billion for Aggressive Renewable Power Zones (CREZ) by Heads of State and the Digital Reliability Council of Texas , or ERCOT, is unprecedented. (ERCOT operates the vast majority of the Texas community). Between 2006 and 2013, CREZ enabled the development of two,400 miles of transmission traces to move 18,500 megawatts of wind era in west Texas to the principle load facilities of Dallas, San Antonio and Austin.
Whether or not or not it was a good suggestion to make this "funding", it was made and enabled the exploitation of the huge wind useful resource of Texas. Within the present period of low-cost and plentiful pure gasoline as a result of "shale" revolution, it’s straightforward to "take the quarterback Monday morning" from this resolution. Nonetheless, by the point the Texas state legislature authorised funding for CREZ (2005), pure gasoline was neither low-cost nor plentiful. In 2005, we had been constructing LNG import amenities.
Pure gasoline costs in the USA (EIA)
Regardless of extra prices of $ three to $ 5 / month, Texas residential electrical energy charges had been unaffected by this "funding". Electrical energy was really cheaper in July 2017 than in July 2005. Would our electrical energy be even cheaper at present, if we didn't construct the wind infrastructure and relied extra on pure gasoline and coal? Perhaps … However you may't recreate historical past. In Texas, gasoline kicks @ $$ and the wind even breaks.
Then the wheel got here off…
The professors on the College of Houston did very properly, then the wheel got here off…
So, with substantial development in pure gasoline and wind vitality over the previous decade, what’s the almost certainly supply to fulfill this elevated demand for electrical energy sooner or later?
Pure gasoline appears to be an apparent reply, however regardless of its fast development over the previous decade, continued development is anticipated to sluggish, each attributable to public resistance to the development of latest pipelines to move gasoline from the fields of State shale drilling to its inhabitants facilities and attributable to rising environmental issues relating to injury to methane from flaring. As well as, the underlying know-how of hydraulic fracturing that allowed the shale revolution is more and more being studied.
How can a paragraph be so completely flawed? Effectively, begin with a steady sentence stuffed with non-sequential errors:
Pure gasoline appears to be an apparent reply, however regardless of its fast development over the previous decade, continued development is anticipated to sluggish, each attributable to public resistance to the development of latest pipelines to move gasoline from the fields of State shale drilling to its inhabitants facilities and attributable to rising environmental issues relating to injury to methane from flaring.
Pure gasoline appears to be the plain reply as a result of it’s the reply. Development will solely decelerate as a result of provide exceeds demand. Public resistance to constructing new pipelines, to the extent that it exists in Texas, is without doubt one of the the reason why a lot gasoline is burned by oil deposits within the Permian Basin … And methane will not be launched by flaring. The flaring burns methane, producing carbon dioxide.
As well as, pipeline building is booming…
January 2019 Vol. 74 # 1
Prospects for pipeline building in North America
Jeff Awalt | Chief Editor
The newest ballot from sister publication Pipeline & Fuel Journal, primarily based on information from the Power Net Atlas, signifies that 145,353 miles of pipelines had been deliberate or underneath building worldwide at the beginning of the brand new yr – and the North America accounted for 36,087 miles of this whole. The investigation discovered that 9,542 miles of pipeline are underneath building in North America and 26,545 are deliberate.
Whereas pipeline building has elevated throughout North America, essentially the most intense exercise has been concentrated across the main American shale video games with carry-out capability constraints, notably the Permian Basin. West of Texas and New Mexico and the Marcellus / Utica basins of the Appalachians.
Within the Permian Basin, greater than 2 MMbpd of pipeline capability has been proposed, and several other of those tasks have progressed after profitable opening seasons which have proven robust buyer curiosity. Manufacturing within the hottest U.S. shale oil started to place strain on takeout capability in 2017, driving up costs, and surpassing it in 2018.
Quite a few main Permian tasks are slated for completion in 2019, together with the 730-mile Epic crude oil pipeline to Corpus Christi, Texas, which is popping into a significant crude and NGL export heart. The Epic crude oil line will add 590,000 b / d of take-out capability, following the route of the Epic NGL pipeline which can also be underneath building.
Plains All American is planning a primary feed on its Cactus II venture in the course of the second half of this yr. Cactus II has been proposed as a 585,000 b / d venture linking manufacturing from the Permian to Corpus Christi / Ingleside through present pipelines and two new ones. As a consequence of buyer curiosity, Plains efficiently carried out a second opening season to broaden its capability. Cactus II is anticipated to start partial service within the third quarter of 2019, Plains is focusing on full service on the 670,000 b / d line in April 2020.
Different notable Permian crude oil tasks embody the Phillips 66 / Enbridge Grey Oak pipeline at Corpus Christi, Freeport and Houston. Grey Oak, which is scheduled to enter service within the second half of this yr, can have an preliminary capability of 385,000 bpd.
Most lately, the Houston-based Jupiter Power Group started a gap season in December for a 650-mile, 36-inch crude oil pipeline, scheduled for completion within the fourth quarter of 2020 The pipeline would have a capability of as much as 1 MMb / d with factors of origin close to Crane and Gardendale / Three Rivers in West Texas and a sampling level in Brownsville, Texas . Jupiter, a non-public firm, stated it is usually constructing a crude oil upgrading, processing and export terminal able to loading VLCCs within the port of Brownsville.
Nonetheless, the scarcity of Permian pipelines will not be restricted to the manufacturing of crude oil. With related gasoline accounting for a few third of Permian manufacturing and rules limiting the quantity of gasoline that may be flared, the constraints of pure gasoline pipelines have additionally leveled off oil manufacturing whereas reducing gasoline costs available in the market. West Texas on the backside of all main US hubs.
Fortuitously, Mexico offers a rising export marketplace for piped gasoline from Texas, as its southern neighbor has aggressively developed its pure gasoline infrastructure.
In 2012, in keeping with Sener, the Mexican Ministry of Power, there have been 7,050 miles (11,347 km) of gasoline pipelines in Mexico, of which 5,665 miles (9,118 km) had been operated by Pemex. Since then, 1,496 miles (2,410 km) of pipelines have been added to the nationwide grid, and that whole is anticipated to achieve 5,420 miles (eight,722 km) by the top of 2019.
The 13 present pure gasoline interconnections from the USA have an import capability of roughly four.2 Bcf / d, in keeping with the Worldwide Power Company (EIA), together with 4 interconnected to the Nationwide Built-in Transport and Storage System: El Hueco, Cuidad Mier, Reynosa and Argüelles. By the top of this yr, 5 extra interconnections are anticipated to start out.
Quite a few main pipelines from Texas and Mexico have been introduced into service previously two years, together with the Enbridge Valley Crossing Pipeline, a 168-mile system that added 2.6 Bcf / d when it entered service in October, and TransCanada's 348. -mile, 670 MMcf / d El Encino-Topolobampo pipeline, which began to be put into service in June.
TransCanada has two different pipelines scheduled for completion this yr: the 178-mile (287 km) Tuxpan-Tula, a $ 700 million venture with 886 MMcf / d capability, and the Tula -Villa de Reyes, a 36 inch, 260 – 420 km pipeline, backed by a 25-year service contract with the Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), Mexico's public electrical energy firm. [For an in-depth review of projects in Mexico, see the Energy Web Atlas white paper, “Mexico’s Infrastructure Expansion and Five-year Plan.”]
The unsequenced practice was adopted by this …
As well as, the underlying know-how of hydraulic fracturing that allowed the shale revolution is more and more being studied.
An absolute horst shale! Texas will not be New York, New England, or California.
Then the opposite three wheels got here off…
After rejecting the offshore wind, even when they don't appear to grasp why it doesn't work…
Offshore wind manufacturing within the Gulf of Mexico, then again, is a sluggish job and unlikely to compete with different sources of electrical energy for a minimum of the subsequent decade as a result of the price of wind energy offshore stays considerably increased than onshore wind. , photo voltaic and pure gasoline in Texas. That is regardless of vital offshore wind expansions in Europe, China and alongside the East Coast, and the favorable offshore wind local weather in Texas from glorious wind sources, a shallow platform and present infrastructure for ongoing oil and gasoline operations.
They determined that the reply must be photo voltaic …
The wager appears to be on photo voltaic vitality: photo voltaic vitality on the size of public companies, near inhabitants facilities and matched with modest vitality storage choices.
Photo voltaic vitality at present accounts for lower than 1% of Texas' vitality combine, however the quantity of photo voltaic vitality put in within the state is anticipated to virtually triple by 2021.
With vital overlap between peak era and peak demand, particularly in summer time, solar energy throughout the utility scale is especially properly suited from a grid integration perspective. . As well as, with ancillary prices considerably decrease than these of rooftop photo voltaic and distributed photo voltaic, photo voltaic on the utility scale mixed with modest storage appears an attention-grabbing answer.
Since photo voltaic vitality represents lower than "1% of the Texas vitality combine", tripling the put in capability is unlikely to exceed "1% of the Texas vitality combine".
Jan-Jun 2019 Demand and Power Report (ERCOT)
Texas' photo voltaic useful resource will not be actually good and the place it’s ok, that is the place most wind farms are discovered. CREZ transmission traces are already crowded with extra electrical energy and the little photo voltaic vitality that’s already working there has worsened congestion.
Photo voltaic photovoltaic sources map (NREL)
Concerning the authors of the Forbes article…
Dr. Ramanan Krishnamoorti is the director of vitality on the College of Houston. Previous to his present place, Krishnamoorti was Performing Vice President for Analysis and Know-how Switch for UH and UHSystem. Throughout his tenure at college, he was chairman of the division of chemical and biomolecular engineering at UH Cullen Faculty of Engineering, affiliate dean of engineering analysis, professor of chemical and biomolecular engineering with affiliated assignments as than professor of petroleum engineering and professor of chemistry. . Mr. Krishnamoorti acquired his bachelor's diploma in chemical engineering from the Indian Institute of Know-how in Madras and his doctorate in chemical engineering from Princeton College in 1994.
Ed hirs is BDO Fellow for Pure Sources and UH Power Fellow on the College of Houston, the place he teaches vitality economics. to undergraduate and graduate college students.
UH Power is the College of Houston’s heart for vitality schooling, analysis and know-how incubation, working to form the vitality future and forge new enterprise approaches within the vitality sector.
Concerning the writer of this WUWT article…
I’ve been a geologist / geophysicist within the "local weather destruction business" (oil and gasoline) since 1981, working primarily within the Gulf of Mexico, the second most prolific oil subject in these United States tangentially.
As a proud member of the "international warming business", I’m happy with the achievements of our business. I lately attended a convention on salt tectonics on the College of Texas at Austin. The opening remarks had been made by Scott Tinker, Texas geologist and director of the Bureau of Financial Geology. His remarks primarily targeted on how oil and gasoline are important for lifting folks out of vitality poverty and he concluded with: "When somebody asks you what you’re doing, reply with & I work within the oil and gasoline business, I carry folks out of poverty. What are you doing? "" The "ethical report of fossil fuels" is simple.
I’ve a BS in Earth Sciences, with a focus in Geology and a minor in Arithmetic, with over 38 years of "OJT". I’m a member of the Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG), the American Affiliation of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) and the Houston Geological Society (HGS). I reside in Dallas with my spouse (additionally geo) and 11 canine (9 rescues, primarily Pomeranians, and a couple of Corgis, whom we love virtually as a lot as rescues) and I work in Houston … My commute has a YUGE carbon footprint. MAGA !!!